The Munich Young Leaders 2012 Discuss the Turmoil in the Arab World, the Crisis in the Eurozone, and the Future of Transatlantic Relations in the “Asian Century”

Munich, February 2 to 5, 2012

(Photos: Marc Darchinger)

In the fourth year of the cooperation of the Munich Security Conference and the Körber Foundation, three topics were at the top of the agenda at the Munich Young Leaders Round Table, which was held from February 2 to 5, 2012: These were the turmoil in the Middle East, the question of how to deal with the crisis in the Eurozone, as well as the future of transatlantic relations.

The Middle East a Year After the Start of the Arab Spring

Ashraf Swelam, Munich Young Leader and advisor to Egyptian presidential candidate Amre Moussa, took a critical look at the situation in Egypt. He believed that the “Arabellion” was primarily a result of the widening gap between rich and poor, to the growing sense of alienation among the youthful population, and the rejection of the ruling class. The high turnout in the parliamentary elections was clearly due to the fact that the voters were determined to assume responsibility for their country. Many people felt that it was now the right moment to make a clean break with the past. The participants also discussed the role of the Military Council and the prospects for the transformation process. Unless the Military Council hands over power to democratic politicians in the very near future, the situation in Egypt may well deteriorate dramatically.

The session with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and US Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman also focused on the turmoil in the Arab world. The participants were especially interested in trying to understand the situation in Syria, and in defining the kind of policy with which the international community could react to the violence in the country. Whereas some people criticized the Russian veto in the UN Security Council, others warned against outside intervention. Its outcome was unpredictable, partly on account of the ethnic composition of the country, and partly on account of the links between the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Iran. It was generally agreed that due to its position in the Middle East Turkey had a crucial role to play in the resolution of the conflict in Syria, which is its direct neighbor.

Transatlantic Relations in the “Asian Century”

In their speeches at the Security Conference US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta stated quite clearly that they were in favor of the transatlantic partnership. As far as Washington was concerned, Europe was the “partner of first choice.” Similarly, the discussion partners of the Munich Young Leaders such as Elizabeth Sherwood Randall, Senior Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council in The White House, emphasized that the US valued close coordination with its European neighbors. However, other partners outside the EU, such as Japan, were needed in order to deal with current global security policy problems.

The speeches by the two US Secretaries were referred to in the session with German Minister of Defence Thomas de Maizière, especially the announcement by Secretary of Defence Panetta that there would be a new American contribution designed to enhance the strength of the NATO Response Force (NRF). The other topics included Smart Defence, the question of humanitarian interventions within the framework of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and the ramifications of sinking defence budgets in NATO member states.

Asia and the Rise of China

Global security policy in the shadow of the rise of Asia and of China was the main issue in the two sessions with David Shambaugh, who is a professor at The George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and Munich Young Leader Joseph Chin Yong Liow, who is a professor at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. In the course of the discussion it became apparent that the integration of China into the international community in economic, social and political terms had made a great progress. However, it was certainly not complete. Many people believe that in international politics China continues to be an actor who mainly has his own interests in mind and tends to steer clear of conflict. In this connection it was pointed out that China was reluctant to discuss international conflicts such as the one in the South China Sea in multilateral forums, e.g. ASEAN.

The Future of Europe

The smoldering debt crisis in Europe, the future of European integration and the issue of a common EU foreign policy were the topics of the discussions with Alexander Stubb, the Finnish Minister for European Affairs and Foreign Trade, Robert Zoellick, the President of the World Bank, Jürgen Fitschen, member of Deutsche Bank’s management board, and Javier Solana, the former EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The speakers highlighted the fact that people were expecting a great deal of Germany in Europe, and that there was an uneasy relationship between cost-cutting and attempts to stimulate growth. It was generally agreed that the EU will only be able to play an important role in the world of the 21st century if it manages to resolve its internal problems and is able to find more common ground.